Executive Summary
This report offers a thorough and comprehensive examination of the phenomenon of extremism in the Gulf region, seeking to understand it through a precise analysis of its historical, social, and political roots. The report discusses how extremism has taken shape and been influenced by an interweaving of multiple factors: from the historic alliance between political authorities and hardline religious currents, to the regional reverberations that exacerbated this phenomenon—most notably the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the 1979 Grand Mosque seizure in Mecca, and the successive Gulf Wars.
This study gains particular importance in light of the unprecedented wave of social and cultural opening now sweeping across Gulf states—especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Although this opening clearly carries positive dimensions, it has simultaneously triggered negative and critical reactions from conservative and extremist factions that view it as a threat to Islamic identity and values. The report examines scenarios in which extremist groups exploit these transformations as a pretext to justify their positions and attacks, drawing on concrete cases from various Gulf countries. In some instances, previously peaceful political opposition movements have morphed into violent organizations.
A detailed analysis is presented of the challenges involved in countering extremism, ranging from security and intelligence obstacles—such as small, decentralized cells that are difficult to trace—to ideological and social challenges, including the need to strengthen values of tolerance and critical thinking, and to address sectarian divisions, as well as the sense of marginalization and social isolation felt by certain segments of the population. Through its analytical framework, the report reaches fundamental conclusions: the battle against extremism in Gulf countries is far from over, and eliminating terrorism cannot be achieved by security measures alone. Rather, it requires an integrated approach that addresses the ideological, social, and political roots of extremism. The report also warns that the continued absence of genuine political solutions could drive additional moderates toward radicalization.
In its recommendations, the report puts forward specific proposals for decision-makers and stakeholders in state institutions and civil society. Chief among these is the necessity of bolstering political and social integration by opening channels for dialogue with moderate opposition forces, and of pursuing social reforms in a way that is sensitive to local cultural dynamics. It also stresses the importance of intensifying educational and awareness-raising efforts against extremist ideologies, and underscores the critical role of regional and international cooperation in countering terrorism, including the exchange of timely intelligence.
By doing so, this report makes a unique and valuable contribution to understanding the phenomenon of extremism in the Gulf, offering a clear roadmap for policymakers to achieve social and political stability and to ensure a secure and prosperous future for the region.
Introduction
For decades, the Gulf region has witnessed the growth of religious and political extremism. The roots of this phenomenon lie in a complex blend of historical, social, and political factors. On one hand, certain currents of religious extremism derive their legitimacy from rigid interpretations of Islam that emerged following the historic alliance between political authorities and religious movements in the eighteenth century. This alliance laid the groundwork for a conservative religious current that dominated social and intellectual life in what is now Saudi Arabia, and eventually extended to the rest of the Gulf sheikhdoms. Over time, this environment became fertile ground for the emergence of more hardline movements that rejected any deviation from a strict Salafi approach. It is important to note, however, that the degree of influence wielded by these religious currents varied from one Gulf state to another.
A pivotal turning point toward organized extremism occurred in the late twentieth century. The year 1979 witnessed two landmark events: on the one hand, the Iranian Islamic Revolution; on the other, the Grand Mosque seizure in Mecca. The Iranian Revolution inspired several political Shiite movements in the Gulf—particularly in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia—that adopted a revolutionary discourse calling for the overthrow of monarchies in favor of an Islamic government modeled on Iran’s. The most striking expression of this shift was the 1981 attempted coup in Bahrain, led by the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain, as well as the emergence of groups such as Kuwait’s Hezbollah. Meanwhile, the Mecca siege sounded alarm bells inside Saudi Arabia by demonstrating that a local current was willing to challenge the legitimacy of the ruling Al Saud family in the name of religion.
In the subsequent decades, additional factors accumulated to further strengthen the current of religious and political extremism. Regional conflicts exacerbated the phenomenon, and the presence of foreign forces on Saudi soil during the 1990-1991 Gulf War fueled resentment within the Sahwa (Awakening) movement, which viewed the presence of foreign troops as a “religious corruption.” Simultaneously, jihadist groups became active: many of their members were Gulf nationals who had fought in Afghanistan and returned imbued with Salafi-jihadist ideology. These individuals formed the core of extremist organizations such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which embraced violence and carried out attacks against targets inside Saudi Arabia during 2003–2004, resulting in hundreds of civilian and foreign casualties.
On the other hand, certain Gulf states—such as Bahrain and Kuwait—made tentative attempts at political reform, establishing elected parliaments and national charters. But these reforms faltered, leaving a segment of the opposition disillusioned and vulnerable to adopting more radical and extremist rhetoric. Frustration reached its peak during the wave of the Arab Spring in 2011. Popular protests erupted in Bahrain that year, exposing deep sectarian and political rifts. The authorities responded to peaceful reform demands with harsh repression, turning Bahrain into a perpetual zone of unrest.
In Saudi Arabia, there were also limited protests in the Eastern Province, which has a Shiite majority; these were met with swift and severe crackdowns. Concurrently, a security and media campaign was intensified against any activity associated with the Muslim Brotherhood or other Islamist political currents in both Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Today, Gulf states are striving to strike a delicate balance between advancing modernization projects—economic and social liberalization—and preserving internal stability while confronting extremist ideologies. This modernization process aims to promote moderation and curb the influence of hardline thought, but it also provokes rejection and denunciation from more conservative segments of society. At the same time, Gulf governments adopt stringent security policies against terrorism, cooperating regionally and internationally to exchange intelligence.
Despite officially declared successes in dismantling terrorist cells and thwarting attacks in Gulf countries, numerous indicators show that the seeds of extremism have not been fully uprooted. Ideologues who believe that violence is a legitimate means to achieve their objectives continue to seek any available openings. In light of this reality, the present introduction seeks to place the reader in the historical and political context of extremism in the Gulf, paving the way for a deeper analysis of the factors fueling radicalization, the challenges confronting governments in countering it, case studies of oppositional movements sliding toward extremism, and, finally, an exploration of potential solutions and appropriate recommendations.
